Aplikasi Error Correction Model pada Analisis Pengaruh Kondisi Ekonomi Global dan Variabel Moneter terhadap IHSG Tahun 2009-2014

Fitri Bunga Adelia

Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik '55

Jakarta

Abstract
This research aims to know the influence of global economic conditions and monetary variables of Indonesia toward the movement of IHSG with analysis tools error correction model. The research period is January 2009 to December 2014. The result show that significantly 5% in short run and long run global economic conditions and monetary variables of Indonesia simultaneously effect on IHSG, but partially SBI rate and FFR not effect on IHSG. In Short run, just exchange rate Rupiahs to US dollar that influence IHSG, with negative correlation. Where the speed of adjustment of short run model to reach balance in long run is 29,9%. Meanwhile, in long run IHSG just not influenced by exchange rate with negative effect. But also It’s influenced by inflation, money supply, GDP rill Tiongkok, and oil world price with positive effect.

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